Being in a cyclical business is risky. You can't blame investors or mortgage companies because there are always companies willing to take risks during good times. You can't blame land buyers for paying top dollar at the top of the market because every year can be the top of the market in a cyclical industry. The factors influencing the cycle are beyond the control of any one individual or company.
Most companies in cyclical industries make a lot of money during the good times, and lose money during the bad times. Moreover, nobody is to blame for a cyclical downturn.
Emerging from the Down Cycle
Companies that are most prepared for a downturn generally emerge as the strongest companies after the downturn. The most prepared companies are:
Less Aggressive: These companies made fewer significant capital investments just prior to the downturn than their competitors, or had the mechanisms in place (such as joint ventures or options) to renegotiate or abandon those investments if needed. They bought land, but they did not bet the company with their land purchases.
Flush with Cash: These companies have access to their own cash or cash from multiple sources in multiple industries. Serious risk takers generate more cash during the good years and lose more cash during the lean years.
Efficient: These companies redeployed their cash flows during the good times into improving processes to be the most efficient company during the lean times. Businesses that think long-term generally prosper over the long-term, while those that are more short-term focused have the most difficulty during a down cycle.
Proactive: These companies proactively respond to the downturn by taking action. You can complain, you can pray, or you can do something proactive to make your company better.
Companies that do not emerge from a downturn are:
In Denial: These companies spend a great deal of time convincing themselves and their partners that the market will improve soon.
Cash-Poor: These companies have little access to cash but spend a lot of time trying to convince those with cash to invest in their companies.
Inefficient: These companies have a lot of process problems that their competitors do not have.
Lazy: These companies take little action.
No company is perfect. However, if you find yourself in the latter category above, you had better fix things fast.
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