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Uncertainties Abound as Election Season Approaches
As Congress concludes its summer session and the members head back to their respective districts, the annual abeyance of August on Capitol Hill belies the fiercely contested election season that looms around the corner. Meaningful lawmaking has been all but put aside as legislators tout the accomplishments of their tenure, and appeal to their constituents for a return to Washington.
According to conventional wisdom, the Senate seems safe for the time being, as Democrats would need to gain a whopping six seats to take back the chamber. That being said, few would be surprised if they netted four or five victories to carve into the GOP margin. Symbolically, however, Dems stand to draw significant blood by knocking off powerful incumbents such as GOP Conference Chairman Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania.
Despite incumbency rates which perennially top 90% in the House, many if not most pundits are predicting a tidal wave election in which the balance of power shifts in favor of the Democrats. A net gain of 15 seats would give the Democratic party an ever-so-slim majority. Incidentally, 15 GOP-held seats are currently rated as “toss-ups.”
With public opinion trending against the administration, the war, and the majority party, Republicans are anxiously trying to defend their disproportionate number of vulnerable seats. The result of the only election so far this cycle offers a glimpse of the conflicting prognostications for November:
Calfornia's 50th a Bellwether?
Coming exactly five months before the November midterm election, the runoff for California’s 50th Congressional district was heralded as a bellwether for partisan hopes in the fall. As the seat formerly held by Congressman-turned-inmate Randy “Duke” Cunningham, the San Diego district has been the symbolic epicenter of the ethics storm which has swept through this Congress. After an inconclusive special election in April, Democratic nominee Francine Busby seemed to be gaining traction, and pundits were sounding the death knell for the Republican majority.
Money and operatives poured into the area as the national parties sought to use the local campaign to trumpet their national message. Democrats, anxious to flex their newfound might, fiercely contested the race to send a message that they intend to compete in every district and take back the House. For Republicans, fearful of yielding control of the House for the first time in over a decade, the race promised an opportunity to quell panic within the base.
Busby sought to frame the campaign around the recent scandals, posturing herself as an outsider intent on meaningful ethics reform. She tied her opponent to K Street, and played off of the general anti-incumbent sentiment.
Former GOP Congressman-turned-lobbyist Brian Bilbray wisely opted not to engage her on the ethics matter, focusing instead on immigration, another issue that resonates particularly well within the southern California district. His campaign stressed his support for the tougher House bill that would crack down on illegals and bulk up border security, while trumpeting his opposition to any plan involving amnesty. Meanwhile he criticized Busby’s support of the Senate measure which would put illegal residents on an eventual path to citizenship.
Both Parties Claim Victory
As the dust settled in the San Diego, and Bilbray returned to Congress, each side was quick to claim victory. Republicans, starved for good news as of late, congratulated themselves on surviving their first test. Meanwhile, Democrats pointed to the narrow margin and massive financial resources spent on GOP turf as proof of an impending reckoning in the fall. In fact, it is difficult to surmise what this might mean.
The circumstances of the 50th district campaign were particularly anomalous, and thus raise as many questions as answers. In all likelihood, elsewhere in the country there won’t be a longtime Republican incumbent heading behind bars, yielding the nomination to a former lobbyist. If the “culture of corruption” argument was going to play anywhere, it should have been in San Diego. Furthermore, the primary Democratic theme was hardly buttressed by the FBI’s recent discovery of $90,000 in freezer of Rep. William Jefferson (D-La.).
Citizens are certainly troubled by the cozy relationship between K Street and Congress, but the question is two-fold. First, do the national issues trump local concerns? And secondly, can Democrats be trusted any more than Republicans?
With a win in California's 50th, the GOP dodged the first bullet, but all that stands between them and a Democratic majority are 15 seats, each with myriad complexities on the local front. For House Republicans, it's one down, 434 to go.
BUILD-PAC Involved in More Than 75% of Races This Election Cycle
468 Congressional seats are at stake in this midterm campaign season, as the entire House of Representatives and one third of the Senate stands for reelection.
So far, BUILD-PAC has supported 362 federal candidates to the tune of $1.85 million dollars. We are involved in more than 75% of the races this cycle, and rank among the top PACs in terms of campaign contributions.
More than half a million dollars have been approved at past board meetings, and will be distributed as the campaign season heats up. We expect to approve another $500,000 or so at the Fall Board meeting, taking full advantage of our $4 million war chest.
At this point the only certainty about the fall election is that NAHB is putting its full political might behind candidates who will work for the home building industry in Congress.
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Traditionally, summer is the time when most BUILD-PAC fundraising events take place. This year is no exception. 
