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Charlie Kasko
2007 BUILD-PAC Chairman |
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OFF TO THE RACES
Poll Positions
Opinion On Dem WH Candidates Holds Steady, While GOP Race Is More Fluid
By Charlie Cook, NationalJournal.com
© National Journal Group Inc.
It is incredibly interesting to look at the vastly different trajectories for each party's 2008 presidential nominating contests, with a dozen Republicans in one contest and eight Democratic candidates in the other. In four Cook Political Report/RT Strategies
national polls taken over the last two months, two strong impressions emerge.
The first point that jumps out is that the Democratic contest is remarkably stable, with Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton of
New York
maintaining a consistent 10- or 11-point lead over Sen. Barack Obama of
Illinois
. Obama, in turn, holds a steady 8- or 9-point edge over former Sen. John Edwards of
North Carolina
. And Edwards is a dozen or so points ahead of the candidate at the top of the second pack.
Over the four Democratic contest surveys,
Clinton
held 35 percent of the vote, Obama had 24 percent, Edwards had 15 percent, New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson had 3 percent and Delaware Sen. Joseph Biden had 2 percent, with 1 percent or less for the others. The most recent sampling showed precisely the same, except that Biden had 3 percent and
Richardson
had 1 percent.
The four surveys were conducted April 27-29, May 11-13, June 15-17 and June 21-23. A total of 3,439 registered voters were interviewed, including 1,568 Democrats or independents who lean Democratic, and 1,382 Republicans or Republican-leaning independents.
The second strong message is that the Republican race is much more fluid. Former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani began the year with about 37 percent in Cook/RT polling, staying about 13 to 19 points ahead of Sen. John McCain of
Arizona
. But in the latest four-poll sequence, Giuliani holds a much narrower lead, 25 percent to 21 percent. The combined sample of Republicans and GOP leaners has a 2.6-point error margin. Former Sen. Fred Thompson of
Tennessee
and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney were running about even for third place, with 12 percent and 10 percent, respectively. Other candidates received 2 percent or less.
But in the most recent survey of the four, Giuliani (22 percent) and McCain (21 percent) were virtually even at the top, as were Thompson (14 percent) and Romney (12 percent) one level back.
(The poll results for both parties are based on questions that exclude potentially significant candidates who are not in the race and who, unlike Thompson, have not signaled a strong intention to run -- former House Speaker Newt Gingrich on the Republican side and former Vice President Al Gore, the Democratic presidential nominee in 2000.)
Using the full four-poll sample, there was a 32-point gap on the Democratic side between the first- and fourth-place candidates, holding steady, while on the GOP side there was a 15-point gap between first and fourth, with first and second dropping and third and fourth rising. This essentially indicates a flattening in the GOP contest.
The stability and even spacing in the Democratic fight suggests it would take fairly dramatic developments to upset this steady order. The tightening up of the GOP nomination contest, however, with previous front-runners faltering and relatively newer or fresher faces rising, suggests that this is becoming a fight oriented more toward resources and momentum.
This puts pressure on the two early front-runners, Giuliani and McCain, to produce the resources to resurrect their earlier premier status, while Thompson and Romney have to show that they can keep up their upward momentum and produce the resources to continue to fuel it still higher.
In short, Giuliani and McCain have to play defense from a weaker position than before, while Thompson and Romney are on offense, needing to build on existing momentum.
The April and May Cook/RT polls did not test general election trial heats and the June surveys did not include New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg, who might run as an independent, so the picture might be incomplete but is still interesting.
In the combined June surveys, which tested 1,699 registered voters with a 2.4-point error margin, Clinton and Giuliani were tied with 43 percent each in a head-to-head matchup. She had a narrow lead against Thompson, 44 percent to 41 percent, and led Romney by 46/38.
While Obama is not as well-known or defined as
Clinton
, he is also not as controversial. The
Illinois
senator tied Giuliani with 41 percent and led Romney and Thompson by 47/33 and 46/34, respectively. As Thompson and Romney get to be better-known among the broader electorate, presumably their general election numbers can be expected to improve some. This might also be true for Obama, who is better-defined than the two of them but not nearly as well-known or defined as Clinton, Giuliani or McCain.
Keeping this in mind, it is probably a safe assumption that the numbers for all of the major trial heats will come to look a lot like the tied Clinton vs. Giuliani and the Obama vs. Giuliani numbers. The unanswered question is whether Thompson or Romney can perform as well among independents as Giuliani does.
Charlie Cook is a NationalJournal.com contributing editor, weekly columnist for National Journal magazine and the founder and publisher of the Cook Political Report. This column also runs in “CongressDailyAM” when Congress is in session. His e-mail address is cookreport@nationaljournal.com.
Reprinted with permission from National Journal, June 28, 2007. Copyright 2007 by National Journal Group, Inc. All rights reserved.
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BUILD-PAC Continues Outreach to NAHB Members
BUILD-PAC is fulfilling its mission of educating NAHB members on the value of BUILD-PAC to the housing industry through a variety of mailings and phone banking. So far this cyce, BUILD-PAC has sent out issue based mailings and a presidential/issue poll.
A combination of direct contact with members and state and local events have raised more than $1 million for BUILD-PAC toward the $5 million cycle goal. "We are pleased that NAHB members are supporting BUILD-PAC this cycle, but we have a ways to go to get to the $5 million goal," says BUILD-PAC Chairman Charlie Kasko, of Shavertown, PA.
BUILD-PAC is launching a peer-to-peer fundraising program over the next two months that will help spread the word of the importance of BUILD-PAC and increase the base of BUILD-PAC contributors. "While direct contact is a great way to get information on the issues out to the members, member-to-member education and solicitation is ideal. We will achieve this through our new peer-to-peer program." Kasko added.
BUILD-PAC's success thus far this cycle has allowed us to contribute more $600,000 to Members of Congress, candidates and political committees.[return to top]
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Key Legislative Issues Heat Up on the Hill
As the summer gets underway, the legislative team is working hard to ensure NAHB’s voice is heard on Capitol Hill before August recess. Following is an update on some of the key issues for NAHB this Congress:
On June 28, the Senate completed the vote to invoke cloture on the immigration bill. Sixty votes are needed to invoke cloture and cut off debate. Cloture failed by a vote of 46-53. Not only did the bill fail to receive the sixty votes needed to invoke cloture, but the bill failed to receive a simple majority of the votes. The Grassley amendment was scheduled to be voted upon after the cloture vote, but once cloture failed, all action on the bill stopped.
The bill has been pulled from consideration for the foreseeable future. Thank you for all of your counsel and grassroots support for this effort. We now will begin to work with all parties to try and craft a new bill that addresses NAHB’s concerns.
On May 17, 2007, the House of Representatives began debate on H.R. 1427. Prior to the vote, NAHB sent a letter to the full House supporting final passage, while signaling out four amendments for Key Votes. In one key vote, which received significant congressional and media attention, lawmakers supported NAHB and approved an amendment offered by Reps. Melissa Bean (D-IL), Randy Neugebauer (R-TX), Dennis Moore (D-KS) and Gary Miller (R-CA) that would clarify that a new regulator must base its evaluation on the risk of Fannie Mae’s and Freddie Mac’s portfolio holdings solely on mission and safety and soundness considerations, and not on broader concerns, such as systemic risk. This amendment ensures that a regulator could not use an overly broad interpretation of risk to unnecessarily constrain portfolio activities of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, which could disrupt the mortgage markets and impede the enterprises’ pursuit of their housing mission.
In addition, NAHB key-voted three other anti-housing amendments that were defeated handily or withdrawn. These amendments would have restricted GSE portfolios, eliminated the affordable housing fund and prevented conforming loan limits from being raised in high-cost areas. With NAHB key-voting final passage, H.R. 1427 passed the House of Representatives by a strong vote of 313-104.
Congress continues to slowly push towards addressing climate change by focusing its efforts first on energy efficiency. The Senate passed a sprawling energy bill on June 21 that included mandates for green construction at the federal level, regional appliance efficiency standards, higher efficiency standards for cars, mandates for biofuels production, and anti-price gouging measures for oil/gasoline. The House is expected to move an energy package in July that will contain similar green building mandates, carbon-neutral and zero-energy buildings requirements, and appliance efficiency and building code increases. Neither body has yet included tax credits for new energy efficient home construction, but NAHB continues to work for those incentives in lieu of mandates for increasing efficiency. Broader climate change legislation is expected to move later in the Fall that will address carbon cap-and-trade and sequestration and promoting alternative fuels that have proved to be very politically controversial to date, e.g., nuclear and coal-to-liquids technology. The building community is a primary target for increasing efficiency and Congress continues to hold several hearings on this issue — more than 60 since January — with much more legislation planned in the future.
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Associates Achieve New Level of Success with Drive
The Associates Drive is nearing its conclusion June 30. The Associates had a great final push around Spring Board and it appears that momentum has continued right to the end. The Associates have raised over $160,000. Nearly 300 Associate Members have supported BUILD-PAC during the drive this year. State Chairs and Area Coordinators from nearly all of NAHB’s fifteen geographic areas have led this extraordinarily successful effort by distributing materials and information to NAHB members at their local HBA meetings, making phone calls during National Membership Day to Associate members, and spreading the word on the importance of BUILD-PAC, to not only Associate members, but to the entire industry. The effort of the Associate Membership is crucial to BUILD-PAC’s success in reaching the $5 million goal in 2008. Thank you for making the 2007 Associates Drive such an outstanding success! [return to top]
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Celebrating BUILD-PAC Successes at Spring Board
Gold Key Club
Hope you didn’t miss the boat! To celebrate the legislative successes of the week, about 500 Gold
 Keys and their guests enjoyed a unique dinner cruise on the Odyssey III down the Potomac River. As the Gold Key Members danaced the night away, 2007 Gold Key Chairman, Mike McGowan, reminded attendees the impact giving to BUILD-PAC has on the housing industry. Many of our Gold Key Club members participated in the Legislative Conference earlier in the week and “stormed Capitol Hill.” With over 300 Gold Key members in attendance and almost 1,000 Club members total, Gold Keys are the backbone of BUILD-PAC’s continuous effort to support and elect a pro-housing Congress. Thank your for your continued support, and we hope to see you in Seattle.
Capitol Club
At this year’s Spring Board Meeting, BUILD-PAC hosted the Capitol Club dinner at the beautiful Dumbarton House in the historical Washington neighborhood of Georgetown. Built under the tumultuous presidencies of John Adams and Thomas Jefferson, the Dumbarton House has been restored to its original design during the time of its first resident, Joseph Nourse, the Register of the U.S. Treasury for the first six Presidents of the United States. Veteran and newcomer Capital Club members alike, recognizing the impact a pro-housing Congress has on the housing industry, support BUILD-PAC at the highest contributor level. Thank you to all our Capitol Club members for your valued support, and we look forward to seeing you in Seattle for Fall Board.[return to top]
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Thank You to all the New Contributor Club Members
BUILD-PAC is excited to announce new contributor club members:
Capitol Club (Members who contribute $5000 annually)
- Phil Chamberlain, Tenn.
- Mike Kurpiel, N.J.
- Mike Luzier, Md.
- John Mills, Ore.
- Gordon Moore, Ind.
- Thomas Paparone, N.J.
- Bruce Smith, Calif.
- Todd Tatum, Calif.
Platinum Club (Members who contribute $2500 annually )
- Robert Banner, N.C.
- Jess Hall, Alaska
- Todd Leibl, Calif.
- Eddy Mitzel, N.D.
Gold Key Club (Members who contribute $1000 annually )
- Kenneth Anderson, N.D.
- Erik Blaney, Mo.
- Todd Bleakley, Kan.
- Joann Bogese, Va.
- Cindy Bussell, Ind.
- Dominick Caponigro, N.Y.
- Lisa Clark, Texas
- Lex Costa, S.C.
- James Cowart, Ga.
- Randy Cramer, N.D.
- Elizabeth Cubler, N.C.
- Thomas Decaro, N.Y.
- David Deharpport, Ore.
- James Dewitt, Ariz.
- Dennis Diprete, R.I.
- Olguita Dollison, Ala.
- Buzz Dulaney, Mo.
- Jason Eid, N.D.
- Michael Farr, Iowa
- Henry Fischer, Ky.
- Clifford Forlines, Pa.
- Mark Fulford, Ill.
- Ti Garner, Miss.
- Walter Greth, Pa.
- Jim Haas, Jr., Kan.
- Joseph Harcum, Pa.
- Mark Hoffman, Kan.
- Lee Holt, Fla.
- Willard Hughes, N.C.
- Buddy Ivey, S.C.
- Chris Knight, Ga.
- Teri Knop, Mo.
- Roland Kyle, La.
- Kirk Laguarta, Texas
- Daniel Levitan, Fla.
- Walter Lujan, Texas
- Terry Marcus, W. Va.
- Marcus Martin, S.C.
- Patrick McBride, Wash.
- Caleb McCaleb, Okla.
- Michael McCleery, Calif.
- Mike McMahon, Kas.
- Tim Minton, N.C.
- Bob Moe, Wash.
- Richard Morin, R.I.
- Agustin Mujica, P.R.
- Joseph Carl Mulac, Ariz.
- Thomas Mullen, Ind.
- Jerry Neese, Ga.
- William Niemi, Calif.
- Karl Noel, La.
- Marimer Olazagasti, P.R.
- Angela O’Neill, Ala.
- Mike Penn, La.
- Harold Phelps. Kan.
- Jason Plecity, N.D.
- Doreen Riedman, N.D.
- Jeff Robinson, Kan.
- Kevin Scarborough, N.J.
- Ted Schieler, Ill.
- George Schulter, Mo.
- Steve Schmidt, Ark.
- Greg Simmons, Okla.
- Steve Steele, Ala.
- Lance Swank, Ind.
- Jeff Tegeler, Iowa
- Grady Thomas, N.C.
- Hal Von Nessen, S.C.
- Tom Walker, Texas
- Frank Wiesner, N.C.
- Connie Willhelm, Ariz.
- Diane Willenbring, Minn.
- Lori Willson, N.D.
- Wesley Wyman, La.
- BJ Young, Fla.
- Peter Young, La.
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BUILD-PAC Supports NAHB Remodelers Night Out
During the Spring Board of Directors Meeting in Washington D.C. NAHB Remodelers held their
 annual Remodelers Night Out at Lucky Strike Bowling Lanes.
BUILD-PAC sponsored a raffle for a GPS Navigation System. Remodeler Chairman Mike Nagel CGR, CAPS and BUILD-PAC At-Large Trustee Scott Sevon hosted the event and educated their fellow NAHB Remodelers on the importance of BUILD-PAC and the tremendous impact it can have on their industry.
For instance, the proposed EPA rule regarding lead paint is a significant issue that affects many NAHB Remodelers. Remodelers Council Chairman Mike Nagel CGR, CAPS and NAHB President Brain Catalde are leading NAHB’s efforts to educate members of Congress on our position on this issue. BUILD-PAC is currently gathering petitions signed by NAHB Remodelers to send to Congress to strengthen our voice.[return to top]
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Host a BUILD-PAC Event In Your State
Each state has a stake in reaching the BUILD-PAC cycle goal. Several states have held successful fundraisers recently. From Mississippi to Iowa, states have held an array of events to support BUILD-PAC. Find out below how easy it is to host your own state fundraiser.
The states below have recently hosted BUILD-PAC events and to-date these events have brought in over $115,000. If you participated in one of the events thank you for your support!
- Jackson, Miss. — Gold Key Reception
- Houston, Texas — Speed Selling Event
- Gastonia, N.C. — Auction
- Phoenix, Ariz. — Golf Reception
- Kansas City, Mo. — Gold Key Reception
- Lafayette, Ind. — Golf Reception
- Cedar Rapids, Iowa — Golf Reception
The following states are hosting BUILD-PAC events this summer.
- McCall, Idaho — Golf Reception
- Cromwell, Conn. — Golf Reception
- Medora, N.D. — Golf Reception
- Salem, Ore. — Golf Lunch/Dinner
- Vermont — Golf Reception
- Omaha, Neb. — Golf Reception
Do you want to host a BUILD-PAC event in your state? Find out how easy it is and receive help from BUILD-PAC staff!
- BUILD-PAC staff can help with the “nuts and bolts” of putting your event together
- BUILD-PAC can reimburse you for some costs incurred
- BUILD-PAC staff can provide a list of past and current contributors
- BUILD-PAC can provide prizes and give-a-ways
- PAC officers will travel to your event
- BUILD-PAC staff will travel to event
- Contact BUILD-PAC staff today Rachel Sullivan 800-368-5242 ext 8289 or rsullivan@nahb.com
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NAHB Staff Bowl for BUILD-PAC
NAHB CEO Jerrry Howard hosted the "2nd Annual BUILD-PAC Bowling Bash" fundraiser on Friday, June 15. Nearly 60 NAHB staff members contributed to the event and enjoyed lunch and an afternoon of bowling. Among the attendees, there were 36 new contributors to BUILD-PAC. So far this year, eighty staff members have contributed $80,000 to BUILD-PAC. "Not only is this event a lot of fun, and it brings together NAHB employees from across the association, but it also educates the staff of the importance of BUILD-PAC" said Joe Stanton, Senior Staff Vice President of Government Affairs. [return to top]
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Get to Know the BUILD-PAC Staff
Denise Mills is BUILD-PAC’s Staff Vice President. She oversees all BUILD-PAC fundraising strategy and is the primary contact for all BUILD-PAC matters. Denise has been a part of the BUILD-PAC team for two and half years. Contact Denise at dmills@nahb.com or 800-368-5242, ext. 8459.
Erika Park is BUILD-PAC’s Fundraising and Compliance Director. Erika is developing and implementing the BUILD-PAC Peer to Peer program. As well as heading up the Peer to Peer program, Erika is the primary contact for compliance issues for BUILD-PAC. Erika is the newest staff member to join BUILD-PAC and is excited to get the Peer to Peer program launched. Contact Erika at epark@nahb.com or 800-368-5242, ext. 8514.
Rachel Sullivan is one of BUILD-PAC’s Fundraising Managers. Rachel oversees all fundraising clubs and is responsible for fundraising in states. She is the primary contact for Dollar a Day Club, Gold Key Club, Platinum Club, and Capitol Club. Rachel has been at NAHB for almost a year. Please contact Rachel if you are interested in hosting a fundraiser in your state. Contact Rachel at rsullivan@nahb.com or 800-368-5242 ext. 8289.
Meghan Everngam is BUILD-PAC’s Communications Manager. Meghan oversees all of BUILD-PAC’s disbursements and communications on such issues with Trustees. She manages BUILD-PAC’s website and all electronic communications with contributors, trustees and NAHB members. Meghan has been apart of the BUILD-PAC year for just over a year. Prior to becoming the Communications Manager Meghan was the BUILD-PAC Staff Assistant. Contact Meghan at meverngam@nahb.com or 800-368-5242, ext. 8259.
Cara Mason is one of BUILD-PAC’s Fundraising Managers. Cara oversees BUILD-PAC fundraising programs that cultivate PAC participation among NAHB membership groups. She oversees fundraising for Associate membership, and NAHB councils and committees. Cara is the main contact for NAHB councils. Cara recently joined the BUILD-PAC team in March. Contact Cara at ccmason@nahb.com or 800-368-5242, ext 8486.
Betsy Savage is the BUILD-PAC Staff Assistant. Betsy oversees processing all contributions made to BUILD-PAC. Betsy also assists with many other BUILD-PAC communications. Betsy started at BULD-PAC at the start of the new cycle this past January. Contact Betsy at esavage@nahb.com or 800-368-5242, ext 8510.
BUILD-PAC Staff at Staff Bowling Fundraiser
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CORRECTION: BUILD-PAC Presidential Poll Mailing
Presidential candidate Rep. Ron Paul (R-TX) was inadvertantly left off the BUILD-PAC presidential poll that was mailed June 7th. We apologize for any inconvenience. If you have not responded to the poll and would like to "vote" for Rep. Paul, please write his name under "other."
Please note: NAHB does not endorse candidates for President.
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