An estimated 64 percent of eligible voters turned out; making 2008 the highest percentage turnout in generations.  By contrast, 122.3 million voted in 2004, the previous record for turnout.  Election night also brought to a close the longest and most expensive presidential campaign in American history. 

President-elect Obama’s call for change, coupled with a struggling economy and an unpopular president, resonated with a broad range of the electorate.  Of the states that President Bush won in 2004, Obama captured North Carolina, Colorado, Iowa, New Mexico, Nevada, Ohio, Virginia, Indiana, and Florida.  At this time, Missouri is still too close to call.  Young Americans turned out in record numbers in key swing states, posting a more than five percent increase in turnout in a number of states.

President-elect Obama will enter office with significantly strengthened Democratic majorities in the House and Senate.  While several House and Senate races are headed to recounts or runoffs, it appears that the Democrats will hold at least a 254-seat majority in the House and hold a 57 to 43-seat advantage in the Senate.  While the Senate majority on its own is not enough to defeat a filibuster, Democrats will look to moderate Republican senators to provide the final votes to get to 60. 

OVERALL RESULTS

White House

Candidate	Vote	Vote %	Electoral Votes
Barack Obama	64,427,144	53%	364
John McCain	56,743,120	46%	163

Congress

House Prior to 2008 Election	House - 111th Congress
235 Democrats	254 Democrats
199 Republicans	173 Republicans
0 Independents	0 Independents
1 Vacancy

OVERALL RESULTS - STATE

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ELECTION UPDATES

Rather than clogging your fax machine with pages of election results, we would like to recommend the following sites to check on individual races from around the country:

            CNN: Politics - News, Opinion and Analysis from CNN.com

            Fox News: Home - FOXNews.com Elections 

            Roll Call: Roll Call     

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STATE AND LOCAL RESULTS

1. Re-election of New Mexico State Senator, and NAHB members, Leonard Lee Rawson.  Senator Rawson is a 20 year incumbent and faced his toughest re-election challenge to date.  NAHB Political Operations was hired to manage the campaign and outside vendors. 

2. Election of Derek Brown, NAHB member, to the Lewis and Clark County Commission in Montana.  NAHB Political Operations was hired by the HBA’s Issues Fund to assist with strategy, manage vendors, and provide additional means of member Get Out the Vote. 

3. Election of Pat McCarthy as the Pierce County Washington County Council Executive and Joyce MacDonald as Pierce County Councilmember.  NAHB Political Operations team was hired by the Master Builders Association of Pierce County to assist with the first time efforts of the HBA’s Independent Expenditure program.  Worked with HBA to establish necessary entity and provided strategy, vendor management, and additional means of member Get Out the Vote. 

POTENTIAL CABINET APPOINTMENTS

HOUSE AND SENATE LEADERSHIP

THE ELECTION TALLY – WHO WON AND WHO LOST

BUILD-PAC PERCENTAGE

THE NEW AGENDA AND CONGRESSIONAL OUTLOOK

This section will assess the impact the elections will have on the major issues of the new Obama Administration and the 111^th Congress.  The section is organized by issue and includes a brief overview of the issue, thoughts on the primary committees NAHB will be working with on the issue and the implications for the housing agenda.  We are not anticipating any changes in the Democratic committee chairmen, however, Rep. Henry Waxman (D-CA) has indicated that he will challenge Rep. John Dingell (D-MI) for the leadership of the Energy and Commerce Committee, which Dingell now chairs.  We will note any changes in the GOP ranking members and possible successors. 

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THE NEW AGENDA AND CONGRESSIONAL OUTLOOK Cont.

IMPACT OF ELECTION ON THE U.S. SUPREME COURT

Of course, the nine Justices who sit on the United States Supreme Court do not represent or receive official endorsements from political parties.  However, it is well-established that factions or blocks of the Court have formed to represent conservative, moderate, or liberal leanings.  As Bush v. Gore (2000) made plain to the country and the world, the U.S. Supreme Court is not above politics. 

Broadly speaking, the conservative wing of the Court is represented by Chief Justice John Roberts and Associate Justices Antonin Scalia, Clarence Thomas, and Samuel Alito.  The Court's more liberal faction is generally comprised of Associate Justices John Paul Stevens, David Souter, Stephen Breyer and Ruth Bader Ginsburg.  Justice Anthony Kennedy typically serves as the moderate, crucial swing vote.  To obtain a necessary 5-4 majority to win any given case, Court-watchers usually pay close attention to Justice Kennedy's position.  More often than not, Justice Kennedy sides with the conservative element, but he commonly joins the liberal perspective and he is not afraid of charting his own course for judicial action. 

Justice Kennedy's swing-vote status has been confirmed by some of the more high-profile environmental cases in which NAHB has been involved in the last few years.  In NAHB v. Defenders of Wildlife (2007), the Court released a 5-4 opinion that resulted in an important victory for our industry to establish limitations on federal actions that trigger endangered species consultations; Justice Kennedy provided the necessary fifth vote to swing the pendulum in a favorable position for NAHB.  Just several months before the NAHB decision, in Massachusetts v. EPA (2007), the Court issued its landmark opinion on climate change and ruled that EPA must decide whether greenhouse gases endanger public health or welfare.  This time, Justice Kennedy joined the liberal wing, resulting in a 5-4 opinion that broadened standing in environmental cases and set the foundation for major climate change regulations that will now be issued by President-Elect Obama's new EPA Administrator (whoever that turns out to be).  In Rapanos v. United States (2006), the now infamous decision on the scope of "navigable waters" under the Clean Water Act, Justice Kennedy developed his own test -- joined by no other Justice -- that an aquatic feature must have a "significant nexus" to a "traditional navigable water" to trigger Corps and EPA federal permitting authority.  His "significant nexus" test has created quite a stir, causing conflicting decisions in the lower courts, calls for congressional reform, and a confusing system of regulatory guidance.         

This is all to emphasize that the make-up of the current Court will likely not change during the first-term of an Obama Administration -- unless Justice Kennedy retires.  In 2009, we can expect that Justice Stevens (88-years old, appointed by President Ford in 1975, and the oldest and longest-sitting current Justice) and Justice Ginsburg (75-years old, appointed by President Clinton in 1993, and in poor health for quite some time) are the likely first retirees.  But as Justices Stevens and Ginsburg are solidly in the Court's liberal wing, appointments by President-Elect Obama to replace them will likely be a wash; two retiring liberal Justices will be replaced with two new liberal Justices.  Justice Souter, a Bush I appointee from 1990, and Justice Breyer, a Clinton appointee from 1994, are considered to be in relatively good health.  They have made no public indications that they will step-down from the Court, and will likely continue to serve in the Obama Administration's first term.  In short, we can expect that a predictably liberal four-Justice block will remain on the Court through 2013.

The conservative wing surely feels emboldened to stay put because if one of them retires, their typical perspectives would likely be replaced by the more liberal or moderate point of view of an Obama appointee.  Chief Justice Roberts (Bush II appointee, age 53), Justice Clarence Thomas (Bush I appointee, age 60), and Justice Samuel Alito (Bush II appointee, age 58), are all relatively young, reportedly in good health, and have given no indication of imminent retirement.  The oldest conservative Justice is the fiery and controversial Antonin Scalia (Reagan appointee, age 72).  He clearly relishes his role on the Court as the doctrinal leader of the conservative "strict construction" theology, and one can not imagine him retiring for quite some time as long as he has his health.

That leaves Justice Kennedy.  He is 72-years old and was appointed by President Reagan in 1988.  Whenever he retires, we can predict a fundamental shift in the Court, as a replacement Justice will probably represent the point of view of his or her nominating president.  While Senate confirmation hearings for Supreme Court Justices have never been for the feint of heart, whenever Justice Kennedy retires, the Judiciary Committee hearing for his replacement will be among the most heated and closely watched in recent memory.  Surely, President-Elect Obama's judicial advisors would love the opportunity to replace Justice Kennedy with a consistent voice that swings the Court in a 5-4 trajectory to the left.  But whether the Obama Administration gets that opportunity, at least during a first term, is far from clear and will depend on whether Justice Kennedy thinks it is the right time to give up his seat on the Court.  At least publicly, he has given no indication one way or the other.     [return to top]

GRASSROOTS IMPACT

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