Housing Economics - 05/16/2007 (Plain Text Version)

By David F. Seiders, NAHB Chief Economist

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Housing Starts Edge Up but Building Permits Drop Sharply

Building permits fell 8.9 percent in April to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.489 million, the lowest level since June 1997, and the largest percentage decline in seventeen years. However, housing starts increased 2.5 percent from March to 1.528 million units in April, as some builders worked down their permit backlogs.

Housing Starts and Building Permits for April 2007
 
DATE
CURRENT
LAST
% Change
Download Starts and Permits
Starts
5/16/2007
1.491 M
+ 2.5%
Permits
5/16/2007
1.569 M
- 8.9%

Read additional information and download data (Excel) for Housing Starts & Permits.

NAHB Press Release: "Housing Starts Edge Up In April, Permits Drop To Slowest Pace In A Decade"

The 2007-2008 Metro Forecasts Are Available

Housing markets with the biggest booms in 2004 and 2005 will generally be the slowest to return to normal levels of activity and those that showed more restraint will be the first to get back on track, according to the 2007-2008 Metro Starts Forecast for single-family production released by HousingEconomics.com.

The major exception is the Midwest, the hardest-hit region of the country where some key markets that have been languishing because of weak local economies aren’t likely to see brighter horizons until next year as job and income growth gradually improve.

The report notes that the correction that started last year has affected different markets to different degrees, “but even markets with few signs of over-heating during the boom have slowed considerably.”

“Nationally, the pace of housing starts in the first quarter of 2007 was down more than 30% from its peak in the third quarter of 2005,” the housing analysts say in an overview of their state and metro area housing starts forecast. “In local markets, half of the 100 largest metropolitan statistical areas that NAHB forecasts were down between 15% and 40% from their 2005 level of production, while some of the most severely affected markets were down 50% or more from their 2005 highs.”

Nationally, NAHB is forecasting almost 1.13 million single-family housing starts in 2007, a 34% decline from a peak of almost 1.72 million in 2005, and 1.19 million in 2008, down 31%.

Double-digit rates of house price appreciation in 2004 and 2005 on the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight's House Price Index (HPI) “clearly indicate markets out of balance,” the report notes. Metro areas with prices climbing the fastest between the fourth quarter of 2003 and the same period of 2005 include: Naples, Fla. (70.5%); Bakersfield, Calif. (70.3%); Palm Beach, Fla., (67.4%); Cape Coral, Fla. (66.4%); and Phoenix (63.5%).

See a Free Preview.

For the full report, including downloadable Excel tables of total single-family and multifamily housing starts by regions and states,  click here. (Available for HousingEconomics subscribers only )

Not yet a subscriber? Instant Online Access Now! [return to top]

Construction Forecast PowerPoints Ready for Download

The PowerPoint presentations are compliments of HousingEconomics.com. Simply click on the links below to download the presentations.

Please note that the PowerPoint presentations are "read-only" files.

 

Topic

Speaker

 NAHB Economic and Housing Forecast

The National Outlook

Regional Patterns

 The Housing Outlook

 Views From Wall Street

House Prices: Where are they and Where are they Going?

 

Visit www.HousingEconomics.com to get the data you need to anticipate the trends, make better decisions, and improve your bottom line. HousingEconomics.com, the online publication from the NAHB Economics Group is your single source for market analysis, forecasts, housing statistics, and more.  [return to top]

Quick Read: Housing Market Statistics

Name
Current
Previous
(5/16)
1.528 M
1.491 M
(5/16)
1.429 M
1.569 M
HMI 
(5/15)
30
33
New Sales
(4/25)
858 M
836 M
(4/24)
6.120 M
6.680 M
(4/12)
6.15 %
6.16%
(4/12)
5.48 %
5.42%
(4/25)
NEW-March
254.0Th
251.8 Th
(4/24)
Existing-February
217.0Th
213.6 Th

= Available for HousingEconomics.com subscribers [return to top]

Key Indicators for the Housing Industry

Housing Market Statistics

Discover all of the key data and primary indicators for the housing industry in one easy-to-navigate location. Full Sample

Housing Starts

(PDF & PowerPoint)

  HMI Index 

(Web page & PowerPoint)

Rental Vacancy Rates 

(Excel & PowerPoint) 
Inventory of New Homes

(Excel & PowerPoint)

Download All the Housing Market Statistics

Housing Market Statistics offers 36 different tables, downloadable either as Excel or PDF files (updated weekly). Access to this key housing data is available only to HousingEconomics.com subscribers.  Sample 

 [return to top]

Residential Greenhouse Gas Emissions

Greenhouse gases are chemicals that, when released into the atmosphere, have the potential to cause global warming. Global warming has received a lot of attention lately. Part of this attention has fallen upon the housing sector and the role it plays in generating greenhouse gases.
 
The largest components of greenhouse gases generated by human activity over the course of a year result from energy that is produced and consumed. Because of this, the Energy Policy Act of 1992 assigned much of the responsibility for tracking greenhouse gas emissions to the Energy Information Administration (EIA), the statistical agency housed inside the U.S. Department of Energy.
 
This article summarizes information from standard EIA reports on greenhouse gases. The article also analyzes data compiled by EIA on household energy consumption, in order to better understand the role housing—in particular new housing—plays in emitting greenhouse gases. The topics covered include the relationship between greenhouse gases and residential energy use, the distinction between annual energy use and “life cycle assessments,” the relative impacts of new and older homes, and the role household behavior plays independent of the characteristics of the house itself.
 
Conclusions drawn include the following:
•  The amount of greenhouse gases emitted from a residential structure during a typical year of its life is primarily a function of how much energy it consumes.
•  Residential energy consumption is the result of many factors, particularly how it is constructed and how it is used.
•   New homes only account for a small share of the total housing inventory, and  likewise a small share of annual energy consumption.
• Production and transmission of the electricity for homes constitutes a significant portion of residential greenhouse gas emissions.
•  Household behavior, such has how long lights are left on, may have as great an impact on residential electricity consumption as the number of built-in appliances or other amenities provided by home builders.

Read the full report. [return to top]

Hone Your Projections: Building Permits and Employment Data by MSA's

Building Permits and Employment data by State and Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA), are available for download (Excel tables).

Also available for HousingEconomics.com subscribers:

  [return to top]

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Calendar: Data Releases for May-June 2007

Mark your calendar for all of  the housing industry key data and primary indicators for May-June 2007.

Print here the schedule of release dates for economic indicators. (PDF)

2007 release date calendar (Excel) [return to top]

Do You Know How Housing Impacts Your Local and State Economies? NAHB does

Look ahead with the Home Builders Forecasts by region and type such as:

  • State and Metro Forecasts — Includes Starts Forecast, Excel tables of Total, Single-Family, and Multifamily Housing Starts by Regions, States, and the Top 100 Metropolitan areas (Free Preview).
  • Executive-Level Forecast — Monthly forecast of economic activity, inflation, interest rates, and housing activity; the Executive-level forecasts contain an executive summary, in-depth detail, and historical data with annual and quarterly forecasts for all indicators (Sample).

Whether you advise, consult or work specifically on improving your own company’s profitability, you can rely on the premier data source for the U.S. housing industry, HousingEconomics.com.

The NAHB Economics Group has provided research and analytical solutions to member companies and professional economists since 1970. This kind of editorial excellence and in-depth analysis can only be found at www.HousingEconomics.com. [return to top]

For more information or to contact us directly, please visit www.NAHB.org | ©2007, National Association of Home Builders