Slowing housing markets won't derail the economic expansion
as our industry transitions away from the major growth engine that it has been over the past several years, said economists at NAHB's 71st semi-annual Construction Forecast Conference on April 27.

Sponsored by NCHI - The Supplier 100 of NAHB, as well as Wells Fargo, Countrywide Home Loans and Fannie Mae, the conference drew hundreds of attendees both in-person and via live Webcast. Presenters, including NAHB Chief Economist David Seiders and other top economists known for their forecasting expertise, struck a generally upbeat tone regarding the economy's prospects and housing's expected role in the ongoing economic expansion. According to Seiders, "single-family home sales, which are down 10% for this quarter, will move down further, but will not by any means constitute a collapse of the housing sector. We're undergoing an adjustment from a period of unsustainability as investors pull out of the market." On the multifamily side, he expects the rental market to regain some ground, while red-hot condo markets start to cool. His home-price forecast shows continuing deceleration in terms of the rate of growth, going from about 12% in 2005 to about 4% this year. And he's predicting that residential remodeling expenditures will remain on an upward trajectory, in part because "an immense amount of home equity will continue to support this spending." 

"It's reasonable to expect that housing won't continue to make the same contribution to the economy that it has," noted economist Jim Glassman of J.P. Morgan, who also spoke at the conference. "But when I think about where the economy is, I think we're in the 5th inning with a good chance of going into extra innings — this expansion we're living in may prove to be the longest one ever seen." Seiders, Glassman and Daiwa Securities America Chief Economist Michael Moran were all in agreement that job growth and productivity gains will help keep the economy on track as housing markets simmer down to healthy and sustainable levels. Get more complete coverage of the Construction Forecast Conference in our press release or in the May 1edition of NBN Online. Contact: Steve Melman (x8245)

Providing the NAHB perspective to Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke,
Senior Officers David Pressly, Brian Catalde and Sandy Dunn continued a longstanding tradition on April 25. They, along with NAHB Executive VP and CEO Jerry Howard, Chief Economist David Seiders and Advocacy Group VP Bill Killmer were on an important mission to re-emphasize the importance of the Fed-NAHB relationship, encourage the Fed to view NAHB as a source of information and analysis on the housing sector, and share our latest assessments of current and upcoming market conditions. As with previous meetings held with Bernanke's predecessor, Alan Greenspan, this was a closed-door session with all comments kept strictly confidential. But we can tell you that, along with sharing NAHB's forecast for a gradually slowing housing market, we communicated builder concerns regarding rising financing costs tied to the Fed's tightening of monetary policy. We spoke of the apparent pullback of investors/ speculators from some housing markets and briefly discussed recent bank regulator actions pertaining to real estate lending activities. Bernanke, whose own views of housing market conditions seem to bear a strong resemblance to those of our own Chief Economist, was a receptive host, and we expect to see much more of him in the future. Contact: Dave Seiders, x8336.

NAHB's considerable political clout and credibility as an information resource in Washington help open the doors of influential lawmakers, administration officials and others who need to understand our members' concerns and challenges. Your NAHB membership is the key to ensuring that your voice is heard on Capitol Hill, at the Federal Reserve and in the White House. [return to top]

U.S.-Canada negotiations on lumber imports
signal bad news for American consumers, who will pay the price for likely quotas and a graduated export tax that would raise the cost of lumber and create significant volatility in the marketplace. As of presstime for this report, a framework for an agreement had just been signed, with details pending. Unfortunately, the ongoing talks have deliberately excluded key stakeholders in the debate — meaning U.S. consumers — who stand to lose the most from a bad deal. After winning repeated rulings by North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) panels and undergoing years of protracted legal and diplomatic maneuvering, it seems incomprehensible that Canada should be the first to blink in this trade dispute when it clearly has the upper hand. See our press release for more, or contact Michael Carliner (x8376) or Jason Lynn (x8307).  

NAHB is pushing hard for a fair resolution to this trade conflict in order to ensure that U.S. builders have access to a stable and cost-efficient supply of the right kind of lumber when they need it. [return to top]

Congress will have "housing on the brain"
when NAHB's Spring Board of Directors Meeting and annual Legislative Conference take place next week.  An all-time record of more than 1,200 home builders will participate in grassroots lobbying activities in Washington, DC this May 10. Such an impressive display of strength and committment is bound to attract some attention. Brightening the spotlight on housing even more, NAHB will be running full-page ads in two of the most widely read publications on Capitol Hill — National Journal and Roll Call. Both highly respected news sources will feature our ad, "Housing - a major piece of the puzzle," which is pictured at right. National Journal's weekly edition comes out on May 6, while Roll Call  will publish the same day as our Legislative Conference, on May 10. If you get a chance, be sure to check out a copy. Jay Shackford has more info at x8406.

NAHB's annual Legislative Conference and year-round lobbying activities are aimed at giving home builders' views maximum exposure and recognition among those who make this nation's laws and regulations. These efforts also help our members develop working relationships with their elected federal representatives, and educate legislators about housing's importance to the economy and American way of life.  [return to top]

A new tool to help NAHB members create environmental programs
will be unveiled at the Spring Board of Directors meeting, and it's something you won't want to miss. The NAHB Environmental Management System (EMS) is the first of its kind for the home building industry. It's aimed at helping you save money, target issues of importance, and ensure greater compliance with EPA regulations — particularly those regarding storm water permits. Designed for medium- to large-sized firms, the EMS provides what is called a "Significant Aspect/Impact Register," which is a Microsoft Excel spreadsheet that allows home builders to type in information about company operations as they relate to the environment, regulatory compliance and costs. The completed document can be used to quickly determine what kinds of policies, procedures or training programs you may need to meet regulatory requirements and enhance environmental protection.

This user-friendly resource, packaged as a CD with an instructional booklet, will debut at the Environmental Research and Education Subcommittee meeting on Thursday, May 11, where it will be distributed to committee members and other attendees. Copies will also be made available to state HBAs and member companies later this spring. Ultimately, the hope is that our EMS can be implemented as part of an EPA pilot program, since that agency has previously stated that it is looking for companies to use a standardized management system that allows them to integrate environmental responsibilities with their business practices. To order the new EMS tool, contact Delicia Jenkins, x8163. For more information, contact Kimberly Wagoner, x8662.

The EMS is an excellent example of how NAHB helps its members understand compliance issues and save time and money using the latest technologies and resources. [return to top]

Look closer at the 13.8% rebound in new-home sales this March
and you'll understand why it's not indicative of a reversal of the gradual simmering down process that is bringing supply and demand into greater balance across the nation's housing markets. In fact, sales for the first quarter of 2006 were down 9.7% from the fourth quarter of 2005, and year-to-date sales were down 8.2% from last year. According to NAHB Chief Economist David Seiders, the quarterly pattern of sales is reasonably in keeping with other indicators, including NAHB's surveys of single-family builders that have consistently shown evidence of an anticipated orderly cooling — spurred in part by affordability issues and reduced investor demand following unsustainable levels of activity in 2005. See our press release, or for help dealing with media inquiries regarding sales numbers, contact Paul Lopez, x8409. [return to top]

An impressive lineup of guest speakers for Spring Board week
includes notable political insiders as well as several members of Congress and the Bush Administration. 

Speaking to the Executive Board on May 9:
-Sen. Max Baucus (D-MT)
-Treasury Secretary John Snow
-Rep. Thomas Reynolds (R-NY), Chairman,
 National Republican Congressional Committee 

Speaking to Legislative Conference attendees on May 10:
-Senate Majority Whip Mitch McConnell (R-KY)

Speaking to a special session of the NAHB Executive Board, Federal Government Affairs Committee, Housing Finance Committee, State & Local Government Affairs Committee and Multifamily Council Board of Trustees on May 11:
-HUD Secretary Alphonso Jackson

Speaking to the Board of Directors on May 13:
-NAACP President and CEO Bruce Gordon
-Veterans Affairs Secretary Jim Nicholson

Get Spring Board of Directors meeting materials online, or contact the NAHB Executive Office (x8345) for more information.

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The Monday Morning Briefing Letter returns on May 22!

Due to ongoing activities tied to the upcoming Spring Board of Directors meeting, the Monday Morning Briefing Letter will not be published for the following two weeks, including May 8 and May 15. We'll pick up where we left off on May 22, with a roundup of resolutions that are approved at the board meeting and other important updates by and for the NAHB leadership. Till then, thanks for reading! [return to top]