November 13, 2003

This Quarter: Condo Sales Skyrocket, Rentals Stay Flat
No Change in Rental Starts; Look For Decline in 2004
Big Surge in GDP, Modest Job Growth
Real Rents Plateau, CPI Moves Up
Multifamily Stock Index and Stock Market Both Show Strength
 
Content provided by
Paul Emrath, Ph.D.
MFSI content by
Elliot Eisenberg, Ph.D.

Published by NAHB Multifamily

Sharon Dworkin Bell,
Sr. Staff V.P.
 
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  Multifamily Stock Index and Stock Market Both Show Strength
During October, the MFSI rose by almost three points, slightly less than a sixth of a percentage point. With this tiny rise, the MFSI is at its second-highest value ever recorded, and is almost 28% higher than 12 months ago. Since the end of September 2003, the S&P 500 with dividends rose by almost 6%, and is now 21.2% higher than 12 months ago — a performance almost six percentage points worse than the MFSI. Because the MFSI barely increased during October while the S&P 500 with dividends increased by almost 6%, the percentage difference between the two indexes declined from 99% to 88%, a level surpassed on only 12 previous occassions.

Despite a strong showing by the S&P 500 over the past year, the MFSI continues to outperform the S&P 500 over the past one-, two-, three-, and four-year time time periods. Since December 1998, the MFSI has risen by more than 72% while the S&P 500 with dividends has fallen by 18%. During the past month, the price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) of the MFSI fell from 18.46 to 18.11, while the dividend yield, defined as the total cash dividend payments divided by the current stock price, rose from 6.61% to 6.64%.

1.For initial article discussing the MFSI in detail see NAHB Multifamily Market Outlook, January 2002. 2.Percent difference is defined as (MFSI minus S&P 500 with dividends)/S&P 500 with dividends.

The MFSI is an index of 28 publicly traded US headquartered firms, including 23 REITs, principally involved in multifamily ownership and management. [ return to top ]

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