April 20, 2006

Condo Sector Vulnerable in Slowing Housing Market
Starts Way Down as Builders Sense Oversupply
Real Rents Increase As Rental Supply Tightens
Economy Expanding Through 2006
MFSI Breaks Record Third Month in a Row
 
Content provided by
Paul Emrath, Ph.D.
MFSI content by
Elliot Eisenberg, Ph.D.

Published by NAHB Multifamily

Sharon Dworkin Bell,
Sr. Staff V.P.
 
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  MFSI Breaks Record Third Month in a Row
During the month of March, the MFSI jumped by slightly more than 155 points, a rise of five-and-one-quarter percent. With this increase, the MFSI is at its highest reading of all time, shattering the old mark of 2,911 set just last month, and is almost 43% higher than it was just 12 months ago. During the past month, the value of the S&P 500 with dividends reinvested increased by slightly more than one and one-quarter-of-one percent, and as a result it finds itself almost 12% above where it was one year ago.

Because the MFSI rose by about four times as much as the S&P 500 with dividends during the month of March, the performance gap—or percentage difference—between the two indexes jumped from 150 percent in February to 160 percent in March, which is 10 percentage points higher than the previous all-time high of 150 percent set just last month. Despite the very strong 69% rise in the S&P 500 since its recent low (set in October 2002), the MFSI has risen a staggering 115% during the same 42-month time period. In addition, the MFSI continues to dramatically outperform the S&P 500 over longer time periods including the past four, five and six years. Since December 1998, the MFSI has risen by a whopping 207%, while the S&P 500 with dividends reinvested has gained a meager 18%.

1 For initial article discussing the MFSI in detail see NAHB Multifamily Market Outlook, January 2002
2 Percent difference is defined as (MFSI minus S&P 500 with dividends)/S&P 500 with dividends

During the month of March, the price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) of the MFSI rose slightly and now stands at 18.79 while the dividend yield, defined as the total cash dividend payments divided by the current stock price, is 3.88%, which is a new low and the direct result of the recent increase in the MFSI. The MFSI is an index of 25 publicly traded US headquartered firms, including 20 REITs, principally involved in multifamily ownership and management. [ return to top ]

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