2007 Five-Plus Starts Revised Upward, but Record Lows Still Forecast
Housing starts in buildings with five or more apartments  increased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 247,000 units in January, which the Census Bureau reported as a 17% increase from December. At the same time, however,  the Bureau revised the December number upward by 7%. This prevents the five-plus starts series from dipping below 200,000 in 2007, which may represent a psychological threshold for some industry observers. Along with its revision to December starts, the Census Bureau also revised its estimate of November five-plus starts upward slightly, so that production toward the end of 2007 now appears somewhat stronger than reported a month ago.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau; NAHB Economics Group

The Census Bureau's estimate for total five-plus starts in 2007 now stands at  277,600, which is down only about 5% from 2006. There will one more set of revisions next month before the final production numbers for 2007 will become available. However, it's now apparent that 2007 will go down as the weakest year for five-plus starts since the 271,000 recorded in 1996. The preliminary figure for January is roughly in line with the NAHB forecast of 251,000 five-plus starts in 2008. If that projection turns out to be reasonably accurate, it would represent the weakest performance  for five-plus starts since the 244,000 recorded in 1995. [ return to top ]