July 30, 2008

Multifamily Stock: Troubled Times A Thing of the Past?
New York Building Code Surges Multifamily Starts
Real Rents Decline For the Second Consecutive Month
Forecast: U.S Economy Shifts Toward Inflation
 
Content provided by
Paul Emrath, Ph.D.
MFSI content by
Elliot Eisenberg, Ph.D.

Published by NAHB Multifamily

Sharon Dworkin Bell,
Sr. Staff V.P.
 
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  New York Building Code Surges Multifamily Starts

Due primarily to events occurring in New York City, starts in buildings with five or more apartments skyrocketed to an unusually high (seasonally adjusted annual) rate of 400,000 units in June. This anomalous reading is up more than 40% from both May of 2008 and June of 2007. The rate at which new five-plus permits were issued also surged by more than 40% in June, driven by a huge 135% increase in the Northeast. This was due to a flood of new building permits issued in New York City, as developers in that area rushed to get projects approved before a new building code became mandatory on July 1. This surge in permit activity had a big impact on starts.

Each month, the Census Bureau collects information on starts and permits from a sample of 900 permit issuing places. These starts are inflated to national estimates by using a ratio of permits in the sample to national permit estimates (which are based on a larger sample). For those who want to look past the New York-driven changes, a modestly positive sign is the fact that multifamily permits were up in the Midwest and South in June, as well as in the Northeast, while holding steady in the West. Multifamily starts excluding the Northeast were down slightly, however.

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