Multifamily Builders Report Metropolitan Starts at Virtual Standstill
Mirroring other historic signs of weakness in U.S. housing  markets, starts in buildings with five or more apartments plummeted to a (seasonally adjusted annual) rate of only 166,000 in November. This is down roughly 27% from October— even after the  number for October was revised downward — and down over 51% from Nov.ember of 2007. If it holds up under subsequent revisions, the 166,000 will turn out to be the weakest one-month number for five-plus production since January of 1994. The Census Bureau meanwhile posted similarly weak numbers for new permit activity, as the (seasonally adjusted annual) rate at which new five-plus permits were issued dropped to 182,000. 

This is down over 20% from October, and more than 50% on a year over year basis. NAHB's multifamily forecast has been ratcheted downward — reflecting not only these declining trends in Census data, but also survey responses and other NAHB communications with multifamily builders. The forecast now calls for a total of only 173,000 five-plus starts in 2009, and 185,00 in 2010. Many builders are reporting that multifamily construction in large metropolitan areas has come virtually to a standstill.  In 2007, a little more than two-thirds of the 418,500 multifamily permits issued were concentrated in the 51 Metropolitan Statistical Areas with a population of at least one million each. [ return to top ]