December 3, 2009

Multifamily Sector Experiences Some Losses and Some Gains
Multifamily Starts Still in Bad Shape
Rent Index at Lowest Point Since October '08
Forecast Remains Rocky, But Optimistic for 2011
No Positive Shift in the MFSI
 
Content provided by
Paul Emrath, Ph.D.
MFSI content by
Elliot Eisenberg, Ph.D.

Published by NAHB Multifamily

Sharon Dworkin Bell,
Senior Vice President
 
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  No Positive Shift in the MFSI
During the month of October, the MFSI fell by 166 points. With this monthly decrease the MFSI is now down slightly more than 4% over the past 12 months, and its 12-month performance has been negative for 15 straight months and 26 of the past 27 months — its worst period of performance ever. The October decrease of slightly more than 7%, its 12th-worst percentage decline on record, returns the MFSI to a level last seen in early 2005—about four-and-a-half years ago. With this most recent fall the MFSI finds itself at 1,677 points, or almost 44% off its all-time high reached in January 2007.

During the past month, the value of the S&P 500 with dividends reinvested decreased by slightly less than 2% and it now finds itself up slightly less than 10% over the past 12 months, the first time it has been in positive year-over-year territory in almost two years!  Because the MFSI decreased by about 7% while the S&P 500 with dividends fell by a bit less than 2%, or by less than a third as much, during the month of October, the performance gap—or percentage difference—between the two indexes decreased from 125% last month to 113%.

Since its cyclical low set in October 2002 the S&P 500 with dividends has increased by 46%, while the MFSI has increased by a substantially better 61% during the same 85-month time period. And, the MFSI continues to dramatically outperform the S&P 500 over longer time periods including the past 10, 11 and 12 years. Since December 1998, the MFSI has risen by 117% while the S&P 500 with dividends reinvested has risen by a scant 2%. 


During the month of October, the price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) of the MFSI rose and now stands at 18.08 while the dividend yield, defined as the total cash dividend payments divided by the current stock price, and which moves in the opposite direction, declined to 8.54%. The MFSI is an index of 18 publicly traded US headquartered firms, including 16 REITs, principally involved in multifamily ownership and management. [ return to top ]

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