NAHB's chief economist ,David Seiders, commented on the market's economic growth. While noting improvement, there are still signs of a rough second quarter that could tip the economy into recession before next years stabilization.

The economy is being whipsawed by wild fluctuations in energy prices, extreme volatility in national and global financial markets, a deepening housing contraction and important shifts in economic policy. The net impacts of these and other factors figure to be negative in the near term, testing the vaunted resilience of the U.S. economy.

Our forecast also shows erosion of payroll employment through the first half of 2009. We expect the unemployment rate to top out at 6.3% in the third quarter of next year before retreating a good bit late next year and in 2010.

View the full article in NAHB's Eye on the Economy. [Return to top]