Paulson and Bernanke: Housing a Drag on Economy
Despite strong economic fundamentals, the current housing downturn remains the most serious threat to the economy in the near-term, Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson and Federal Reserve Board Chairman Ben Bernanke said in separate remarks this week. “The ongoing housing correction is not ending as quickly as it might have appeared late last year,” Paulson said during an address before the Georgetown Law Center in Washington, D.C. “And it now looks like it will continue to adversely impact our economy, our capital markets and many home owners for some time yet. Even so, I believe we have a healthy, diversified economy that will continue to grow.”
Echoing a similar theme, Fed Chairman Bernanke said in a speech before the Economic Club of New York that U.S. economic performance so far this year has been “reasonably good” despite a notable contraction in the housing sector that began in the second half of 2005. Since the last meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee in September, when the Fed announced it was cutting short-term interest rates by one-half of a percentage point, the housing market has weakened further, said Bernanke. “The further contraction in housing is likely to be a significant drag on growth in the current quarter and through early next year,” he said. “However, it remains too early to assess the extent to which household and business spending will be affected by the weakness in housing and the tightening in credit conditions.”
The Fed this week also released results from its "Beige Book," a snapshot of conditions in the Fed's 12 district banks throughout the country, that show the economy expanding in all areas, albeit at a slower pace since August. The Fed described growth as "moderate," "modest," and "mixed" around the country and executives interviewed in a number of industries "indicated a higher-than-usual degree of uncertainty about the outlook for economic activity."
In related economic developments, the Commerce Department reported that housing starts nationwide last month dropped 10.2 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.191 million units -- the lowest level since March 1993. In a press release commenting on the report, NAHB noted that "builders are pulling back on production until sales improve."
NAHB this week also released its Housing Market Index for October, which shows that builder confidence is continuing to fall, and is now at its lowest point since the series began in January of 1985. For more information, click here.
See the Oct. 22 issue of Nation's Building News for more on the Treasury secretary's and Fed chairman's remarks, or view the full statements of Paulson and Bernanke. To learn more about the housing economic outlook, be sure to attend the NAHB Construction Forecast Conference on Oct. 24 at the National Housing Center.
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